p . 8 “ Interview of J . Scott Armstrong ” for the International Journal of Fore - casting , By Fred Collopy , Case Western Reserve University

Automatic Identification of Time-Series Features for Rule-based Forecasting

Rule-based forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that uses features of time series to select and weight extrapolation techniques. Thus, it is dependent upon the identification of features of the time series. Judgmental coding of these features is expensive and the reliability of the ratings is modest. We developed and automated heuristics to detect six features that had previously been judgment...

Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation

Rule-Based Forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that uses judgment to develop and apply rules for combining extrapolations. The judgment comes from two sources, forecasting expertise and domain knowledge. Forecasting expertise is based on more than a half century of research. Domain knowledge is obtained in a structured way; one example of domain knowledge is managers= expectations about trend...

Principles for Examining Predictive Validity: The Case of Information Systems Spending Forecasts

Research over two decades has advanced the knowledge of how to assess predictive validity. We believe this has value to information systems (IS) researchers. To demonstrate, we used a widely cited study of IS spending. In that study, price-adjusted diffusion models were proposed to explain and to forecast aggregate U.S. information systems spending. That study concluded that such models would p...

Research Report - Principles for Examining Predictive Validity: The Case of Information Systems Spending Forecasts

The profitability of winning

Introduction: Sports and war metaphors abound in business today. For example, one management book, Thunder in the Sky, by Thomas Cleary, opens with a Chinese saying that translates: “The marketplace is a battlefield. The Asian people view success in the business world as tantamount to victory in battle.” The book advises American executives to do the same. However, such metaphors are misleading...